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News » Eye on nba postseason The Rockets know they'll tip it off in the first round, but targeting a likely foe is like trying to catch


Eye on nba postseason The Rockets know they'll tip it off in the first round, but targeting a likely foe is like trying to catch


Eye on nba postseason The Rockets know they'll tip it off in the first round, but targeting a likely foe is like trying to catch
Rockets update

Friday: Rockets 113, Warriors 109.

Record: 52-28.

Monday: New Orleans at Toyota Center, 7:30 p.m.

TV/radio: FSH; 610 AM, 850 AM (Spanish).

POSSIBLE FIRST-ROUND MATCHUPS

The NBA playoffs start Saturday, and the Rockets will be there - they just don't know whom they will play. Some possibilities for the first round:

Rockets Mavericks

2008-09 season series: Rockets lead 2-1.

Key stat: Dirk Nowitzki is making just 36.8 percent of his shots against the Rockets this season.

Good signs: Yao Ming has always scored well against Erick Dampier; Aaron Brooks' speed has given Jason Kidd trouble.

Bad news: The Mavericks are surging at the right time. The development of J.J. Barea allows Kidd to defend shooting guards, Nowitzki has been on a roll and Jason Terry has been known to light up the Rockets.

Rockets Hornets

2008-09 season series: Rockets lead 2-1.

Key stat: Yao averaged 20 points against the Hornets and 29 points and 15 rebounds against New Orleans last season.

Good signs: The Rockets have had success against New Orleans the past two seasons, keeping Chris Paul from monster games and growing effective against pick-and-rolls with Tyson Chandler.

Bad news: With the Rockets struggling to find their best late-game options, the last thing they want is to see Paul darting around screens and making decisions in the final minutes. Peja Stojakovic has returned, improving the spacing for Paul and the Hornets' suspect depth.

Rockets blazers

2008-09 season series: Rockets won 2-1.

Key stat: The Trail Blazers are one of the league's top rebounding teams, ranking No. 1 in both offensive and total rebounds.

Good signs: Though Brandon Roy is a tremendous finisher, the Rockets can put Shane Battier or Ron Artest on him, matching Roy with their best defenders. Yao has scored well and forced foul trouble against Portland centers Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden.

Bad news: Chuck Hayes has been sensational defensively against LaMarcus Aldridge, but if the Rockets rely too much on Hayes, that takes minutes away from Luis Scola. Portland's athleticism off the bench, especially with Travis Outlaw, can cause problems. Few teams know better about Roy's ability to steal a win.

Rockets Spurs

2008-09 season series: Tied 2-2.

Key stat: The Spurs are the NBA's top defensive rebounding team.

Good signs: Yao has done a strong job defensively against Tim Duncan; Scola has been outstanding against the team that drafted him. With Manu Ginobili out, the Spurs must replace one of the league's top finishers.

Bad news: Tony Parker has had a spectacular season and has given the Rockets fits. No team is more playoff-tested. Roger Mason Jr. has hit game-winners in the Ginobili/Robert Horry mold.

Rockets Jazz

2008-09 season series: Tied 2-2.

Key stat: The Jazz are tied for the second-best home record but have the worst road record among Western Conference playoff teams.

Good signs: Yao has excelled defensively the second half of the season, making him better equipped to match up with Carlos Boozer. Artest can match the Jazz's physicality.

Bad news: With Boozer and Mehmet Okur, Yao must match up with a jump shooter. Deron Williams has been tough on Rockets point guards. The Jazz's discipline negates Artest's instinctive defensive style.

Finally, with just two regular-season games remaining, there is a sliver of clarity.

The Rockets are certain to finish the season somewhere between the second and fifth seeds. If they win their final two games, they will be the Southwest Division champions. They know they would begin the playoffs with a first-round matchup against ...

Anybody but the Lakers.

"We're just going to play to win," Von Wafer said. "That's all we can do. We're not scared of anybody. We're going to have to face them one way or another to go to where we want to go. Why not face them earlier? We're not scared of anybody. Play them whenever."

There is some clarity, but not enough to rule out every Western Conference playoff team but the Lakers as a potential first-round opponent, though it is extremely unlikely they would open against the Nuggets.

But the Rockets returned home knowing they could begin the playoffs against any one of five teams - New Orleans, Portland, Dallas, San Antonio or Utah.

"It's driving me crazy," forward Luis Scola said. "It changes every day. It sometimes changes every hour, actually. It will probably change four or five more times because everybody is playing everybody. Everybody is changing spots. What is guaranteed is the Lakers are going to be first. Everybody else, anything can happen."

Some Rockets don't even try to figure out the possibilities.

"I don't look at anything," Aaron Brooks said. "It changes every day. I know the Lakers are one and we're three."

Others consider possibilities, then find the uncertainty too great.

Battier confounded

"The scenarios are so crazy," Shane Battier said. "There's not enough hours in the day to break them all down. You can't worry about it. We're going to play a good team."

But by Wednesday in Dallas there might be an opportunity to manipulate the seedings to try to choose or avoid a particular opponent. If a loss to the Mavericks might prevent a 3-vs.-6 matchup with the Jazz, the team that eliminated the Rockets from the past two postseasons, coach Rick Adelman might have the chance to do everything short of starting Brooks at center and Chuck Hayes at point guard - if he felt strongly enough about picking his opponent.

He doesn't. Though he would not indicate any preferences of teams to face in the first round and not see until later, if at all, he said he wants to get the Rockets ready to defeat any team they play. And he doesn't want to tank to a particular matchup.

"I don't think you can do that," Adelman said. "I haven't done that. If you're good enough to be in the playoffs, you're good enough to beat whoever you play. If you're good enough to be in there, play who you get.

Playoff uncertainties

"You think about (potential strategies), but it's kind of futile. Just about when you think something is going to happen, the opposite happens. When you think someone is going to win, they lose. Whoever you get, you get. It can be a tough matchup. Sometimes you think you got a break, and that's not true, either.

"When we're playing teams, I think about it. We're going to play New Orleans. We're going to play Dallas. We have to see how we're going to play them."

Certainly, the Rockets have preferences, but no team would admit to wanting to play or wanting to avoid a potential first-round opponent. At this stage of the season, the Rockets would not share whether they prefer the color pattern in a particular visiting locker room.

Close to the vest

"I try not to tell," Scola said. "I have my own opinion. I keep it to myself. I think everybody is pretty much the same. Some teams can be a little bit better matchup, but they're all pretty competitive teams. They're all going to be pretty much the same.

"What is the difference between any of those teams? All those teams are in the margin of three victories. Maybe you can say this matchup is a little bit better for us, or this matchup is a little bit better, but not by a lot."

Besides, until the Rockets have a clue about whom they play, there seemed little point in deciding how they feel about it.

jonathan.feigen@chron.com


Author: Fox Sports
Author's Website: http://www.foxsports.com
Added: April 14, 2009

 

 
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